EP. 2 NEVADA
Man: In Las Vegas, Nevada, with…
Julio: You don’t even remember the name
Man: Wait, wait, wait.
Julio: Julio Vaqueiro.
Man: Julio Vaqueiro. You’re the one I watch the most here…
Julio: Thank you, thank you.
Man: ¡Arriba Las Vegas y arriba México!
Julio: This week we are in Las Vegas, Nevada and we came to talk about money. Not the money from the casinos, or from the hotel rooms, or the tips… But about the family economy of millions of people, in one of the most important and decisive states in this year’s elections.
It seems that everyone has it in mind.
Audio file, news
Host: House prices in Nevada have doubled.
Reporter: Seven dollars that’s what it cost me to buy this gallon of milk and these dozen eggs.
Tik Tok user: Family of four. Cost of living in Las Vegas Nevada. Rent: $1,600. Electric: $250. Grocery: $800. Gas…
Julio: According to polls, a quarter of voters in Nevada say the economy is their top concern. And it makes perfect sense. Nevada has the worst unemployment rate in the country, 5.5%. Food and gas prices are among the most expensive. And housing costs have skyrocketed.
If this were a normal year, this kind of data… would be very bad news for anyone in a position of power. Like, say, a sitting vice president. But this is not an ordinary year.
So, how much does the economy matter in 2024? And what plans do the two candidates have to address the pain and concern felt by all voters, not just Latino voters?
I’m Julio Vaqueiro.
This is El Péndulo: the Latino vote from five states that will decide the presidential elections in the United States. A podcast by Noticias Telemundo and Radio Ambulante Studios.
Today… Nevada.
Julio: Las Vegas. You are probably thinking about the lights of the famous Strip, its reputation, deserved or not, of a certain decadence… About the city where the party seems to never end.
But behind this facade, of what the tourist perhaps sees, there is another reality. The reality of the workforce that sustains this illusion, a workforce that is mainly Latino. To understand it better, we left the tourist center of Las Vegas, and went north for half an hour…
Marta: We are here at the Swami, which many people call the flea.
Julio: This is Marta Fabiola Vazquez. Marta has worked here since 1995. At Broadacre Marketplace. This is a swap meet, or an open-air market, in the north of Las Vegas. It is in the area with the most Latinos in the city. And this is where those who work in the most touristic area of Las Vegas come to shop. It is the typical market that has everything…
Marta: Tacos, seafood, Chinese food, crepes, popcorn, birria…
Julio: They sell toys, clothes, hats, jewelry… But people come to Broadacre not only to buy.
Marta: They have dancing, mariachi bands. There are people who come for fun. There are mechanical games and many things for children too.
Julio: Marta started selling clothes and accessories. But 10 years ago she changed jobs. She opened her first food stand: Mr. Papas. And she began to sell typical dishes from her hometown, Guadalajara.
Marta: At this stand I have mostly original products from where I come from. Here we sell espiropapas, salchipulpos, salchitacos…
Julio: So, you have this stand and you have other stands here in the market. How many more?
Marta: There are seven in total.
Julio: And how did you manage to have so many stands here in the market?
Marta: Well, I have a lot of children.
Julio: Hahaha, you put them all to work.
Marta: We put them all to work.
Julio: And it’s not only his children who work in the market…
Marta: Well, the whole family works. My dad, my nieces, my nephews, my cousins work.
Julio: It’s the Guadalajara mafia in the Las Vegas market.
Marta: Almost, almost, yes.
Julio: Marta came to the United States more than 30 years ago with her parents. They first settled in Los Angeles, but four years later they moved to Las Vegas. Right at the time when the Latino population in Nevada began to grow. In part, thanks to the construction of hotels and casinos.
Marta: It was a city that was just starting with Latinos and there were many very interesting job offers.
Julio: Through hard work and effort, Marta became middle class, equal to 57% of Latino families in Nevada. This percentage is higher than any other state in the country.
Marta was able to buy a house, send her children to college, save and help her entire family. But not everything is as good as it seems. Over time, things have changed. The business is not what it used to be either. It all started with the pandemic. Like any business in the world, hers was affected. Normal. But, when the world reopened…
Marta: It was like never before, like never before. I could tell you that sales increased by 200% after the pandemic.
Julio: This didn’t last long. Nevada’s economy was practically suffocated during the pandemic. This state had the highest unemployment rate in the entire country, almost 31%. And more than twelve thousand people died. When everything was over, people began to get their jobs back. And some, like Marta, even did very well. But the wound remained latent. Throughout Nevada, the economy is still affected. And now, the challenge is to deal with the high cost of living.
Marta: People are already afraid to spend. They no longer spend as they used to, they no longer go out as they used to. Prices are sky-high for food, for everything.
Julio: For everything. But of course, some things more than others.
Julio: What has gone up in price for you, let’s say, what ingredient has become the most expensive?
Marta: Meat. Definitely meat. Four years ago it cost you $2.39 a pound and today it’s $4.50 a pound. In other words, we’re talking about more than double. Cheese is also sky-high. Before, a pound of cheese cost you $2, now a pound of cheese costs you almost $6. Potatoes cost me $17 a box. Now they cost $35.
Julio: Oh, but that’s a lot.
Marta: A lot.
Julio: And so we continued for a while. Comparing prices. Talking about cream, eggs, butter. We talked so much that our pockets even started to hurt. And with that in mind, I had a question for Marta.
Julio: In this presidential election, what is the most important issue for you?
Marta: The economy. The prices of all things, gas, rents. Everything that has to do with what comes out of all of our pockets.
Julio: Different versions of this conversation were repeated throughout the day, but with different people. Everyone agreed on the same thing: prices are too high. But of course, you can’t agree on everything. In general, there was no consensus in the market about which candidate has more tools to improve the economy.
Julio: Which of the two candidates do you think will solve the economy better?
Lady 1: The economy? Donald Trump has more experience in the financial and economic areas.
Julio: Listen. Which of the two candidates do you think will solve the economy better?
Lady 2: Kamala.
Julio: Kamala Harris?
Lady 2: Yes.
Julio: Which of the two presidential candidates do you think will solve the economy better?
Lady 3: Trump, definitely. Because even during the Pandemic everything was fine. Everyone had money.
Julio: Which of the two economic proposals do you like best? Trump’s or Kamala Harris’s?
Lady 4: Kamala’s.
Lady 5: I like her because she has good values and knows more about the situation of us middle-class and non-middle-class migrant workers, hehe.
Julio: For her part, Marta is still not so clear about it.
Marta: In my family they are divided. In my family some believe this one is better and the other half believes that one is better.
Julio: And what do you think?
Marta: I think we already had Donald Trump. And I think that the economy was better. But afterwards it was worse, because I have felt it worse. After him. But he is bad at dividing us all. And I, as an immigrant, feel that he divides us more every day, instead of uniting us in this country and I feel that we are divided with him.
Julio: We found, well, a lot of division. We even met a young man who was afraid to tell us who he was going to vote for.
Young man: It’s just that… I don’t want to talk about politics.
Julio: Yeah
Young man: It’s a subject that I don’t want to risk. Well, if I say something it can affect things in the future. Because people, well, you know… they are all canceling.
Julio: He says he is afraid of being canceled. That is, if he says who he plans to vote for, that could affect his business here in the market.
Young man: For me, my positions are personal. But for me the most important thing is the family. Well, I am not going to fight because someone has an opinion about something else.
Julio: He says this because his parents, who have lived here for 25 years, are undocumented. His own family is divided. But this is not at all unusual in Nevada. A recent survey says that Harris has a small advantage of 0.6%. Which means that the state is practically divided in half.
Julio: Now that you tell me that the most important thing is the family, are you worried, for example, that one of the candidates, Donald Trump, talks about mass deportations?
Young man: Yes, I am worried, well, for all the people who are affected by that. My bosses are not affected by that because they are already in the process of getting residency. They have work permits and all that.
Julio: But, there were other people willing to give their opinion and openly say who they will vote for.
Lady: My corn hair. I am going to defend my corn hair. That is what Mexicans affectionately call the former president…
Julio: Is that what they call him? My corn hair?
Lady: My corn hair… they love him, they love him.
Julio: Walking through the market we came across a stand that said: Latin Americans for Trump, campaigning.
Julio: And what they are doing here is registering them?
Lady: This is for people who are not registered, right? They still have time to register.
Julio: How long have you been here?
Lady: This is our third Sunday… third Saturday.
Julio: How are you?
Bárbaro: Very well.
Julio: Very well, what is your name?
Bárbaro: Bárbaro Álvarez.
Julio: What are you doing here?
Bárbaro: Well, we walk around and find little places like these to come and support Trump. That man is the one who is going to free my country.
Julio: Are you sure that you are going to vote for Trump?
Bárbaro: I am completely sure. I even dream about him.
Julio: The polls say that the electoral race will be extremely close in Nevada. In 2016 and 2020 Trump lost in this state by a very small margin. But this time, the economic malaise could play in his favor. However, victory is something almost impossible to predict. In Nevada, a third of the voters are independents, and that makes this state unpredictable. In recent months, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have visited Nevada on several occasions. And in fact, she was here, in the Broadacres market, last March. Several months before becoming a candidate.
Audio, news archive
Journalist: The vice president came there to greet her supporters…
Adele: She came here to the swap meet one day, I took a photo of her. She came here and said: Hi! And I was very happy. I thought it was spectacular. And I didn’t know what it was… She was going to be president. Imagine, now she’s going to help more.
Julio: She’s Adele, she has a stand in the market where she sells Pokemon stuffed animals. I asked her about Harris’s economic proposals.
Julio: Do you know her proposals well?
Adele: Well, look, I’m not good at watching television. I’m good at talking, but not at watching. But from what I hear from my colleagues and everything, most people at my work are with Kamala.
Julio: Many other people in the market also didn’t know what each candidate’s proposals were. So, we called an economist.
After the break: The answer.
Julio: We’re back at El Péndulo. I’m Julio Vaqueiro.
Sara Avila: Well, the thing is that Nevada is a state that has a very large Latino population.
Julio: This is Sara Avila, economist and professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Colorado and Nevada are almost neighbors. And they are part of the mountain states.
Sara: 28% of the population is Latino. And therefore, they have suffered the impact of inflation and rising interest rates.
Julio: And the fact is that, although inflation hits the pockets of all Americans, not everyone experiences it in the same way. According to the Federal Reserve of New York, in recent years inflation has affected Latino and African-American households more. For example, in 2021, when transportation prices began to rise, the inflation rate for Latinos exceeded the national average by more than 1.5%.
Sara: Well, I don’t want to generalize. There are very successful Latinos, right? Very rich. But most Latinos are from the working class and therefore inflation hits us much harder, right? For the poor, who are wage earners, inflation hits you particularly hard. And in Nevada, gasoline has gone up 55% in the last four years. Food, 20%. Housing, let’s say rent payments, went up almost 20%. And so, that’s why there is a lot of concern about the economy in states like Nevada. But, in fact, in the whole country.
Julio: You know, we went to Las Vegas, we talked to some Latinos, Latino voters, and yes, in general, they all tell us that they feel that life is more expensive.
Lady: You can’t go to a market, you go with $200. A family with four or five children with $200 can’t get what they need.
Julio: But, inflation right now is at 2.5%, which is low. Why do we still feel that life is so expensive?
Sara: Look, there are things that have increased in price a lot in recent times and it was gradual. Housing, education, health… and these things are very expensive, but one doesn’t use them too much. When it comes to increasing daily expenses in the last four years, it hit hard.
Julio: The thing is, although the data show that inflation has gone down, it’s not just about numbers anymore, but about perception. And voters feel that life in the United States has become unaffordable.
Julio: So, on one hand it was that, the price of things. And on the other hand, also in this market that we went to visit, they talked a lot about how they feel that people are spending less.
Lady 1: Everything is going up and sales are going down.
Lady 2: People are also afraid to spend because they hear so many things. It is heard that there is going to be a depression.
Lady 3: They buy less materials, like the ones we sell, yes.
Julio: Is that feeling true?
Sara: That is totally true. When you know that you are in a precarious situation, well, you hold back buying shoes, you hold back buying vehicles, you hold back… And yes, it does affect precisely in that you stop buying and therefore the economy slows down even more.
Julio: But do you think that we are like there in a recession or entering into some kind of recession?
Sara: The thing is that it is not a recession, I mean, there is quite a serious consensus that it is not a recession, because a recession would be like our Latin American countries, when prices rose terribly and we no longer had enough to eat. The thing is that we have had an increase in salaries. The thing is that it is still very painful to have the price of gasoline and the price of groceries go up, but the salary also continues to go up. So we are dragging along, but we still reach a level that allows us to eat, right?
Julio: If you had to say in a sentence or in an idea… How has the life of Latinos changed in the last four years in economic terms?
Sara: You know what Julio, the thing is that Latinos are not a homogeneous group. Everyone says it, but it would be better to explain how the economy has affected different sectors of Latinos, that is, poor Latinos, rich Latinos. And there is also a very important difference by gender. Women and men have suffered differently from this crisis. It turns out that in recent years women have had more job opportunities, for example, than men.
Julio: And that gender gap could be reflected when it comes to voting. According to some surveys, Latina women tend to vote more for Democrats than men.
Sara: Since the pandemic, Latino income has increased considerably. No, net, no. Other groups have always been richer, right? But we have grown faster and surprisingly, the sector that has grown the fastest is that of young Latina women who have just graduated from college and who, with great sacrifice, their parents put them in schools with good education and who now have a professional job and have grown. Latina women have grown at a higher rate than the state of Florida in the last three years. Imagine the size of the economy. And this means that anything that affects the economy affects Latinas and their families.
Julio: Now let’s talk about the candidates’ proposals. First we start with Trump. Mass deportations, which is one of the great proposals of former President Donald Trump, he wants to deport millions of immigrants as a solution to improve the country’s economy.
Audio file, Donald Trump:
I will send them all back to their countries where they belong. Prices will come down, and come down dramatically.
Julio: But can this work?
Sara: Donald Trump’s idea is that by deporting these people, they will leave their homes, their jobs, and someone else will use them. But we must remember that all immigrants are in a society interwoven with each other. So, most likely there are also citizen people in the families who would stay here living in the house, right? So the houses would not be unfit.
Julio: Deporting millions of people is not only very complicated to achieve, in logistical terms, but it would also require a lot of money. In addition, it would be harmful to the economy. Experts warn that deporting just 1 million workers could generate an economic recession.
Sara: If you get rid of all these workers right now, what you will generate is an economic problem of enormous proportions, not only because of the lack of workers, but because of the lack of consumption. Immigrants also consume, eat and contribute a lot of money in terms of taxes, social security… So, it would be a real disaster for the economy.
Julio: Another of Trump’s proposals has to do with tariffs.
Audio file, Donald Trump:
Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back after all that we have done for the world.
Julio: Trump proposes to increase taxes on all products that are imported into the United States. Especially those that come from China. In theory, this policy is not new. At the end of his first term, Trump imposed some tariffs on China. And in fact, Joe Biden maintained them.
Sara: Today, when China sells batteries, gloves, electric vehicles, masks, magnets to the United States… China pays between 7.5%, 20%, and even a little more tariff on entry.
Julio: This depends on the product, of course. For Trump, this policy would force companies to manufacture more things in the United States. And this, according to him, would create millions of jobs. Because more people would be needed to produce. But, the first time he tried to implement this measure, this did not happen.
Sara: This makes certain things go up in price. Whenever there are tariffs, the first impact is an increase in prices.
Julio: And now, Trump not only wants to increase tariffs on China. But to impose this tax on everything that comes from another country.
Sara: No economist agrees that it is a good idea to put tariffs on everyone and put such high tariffs.
Julio: We are talking about up to 20% tax on all imports.
Sara: Why the hell do you want to charge more for avocado, or guava, or pineapple and lemon, because you will never be a leading producer here. And no, you have no interest in protecting anyone. You only increase prices. For all of us who live in the United States, having to pay a million to eat your bread with avocado. And maybe that’s the least of it. Imagine the parts of cars. When your washing machine breaks down, when you want to buy a new shirt, shoes, rackets, pans, all of that goes up because we import everything. And that’s definitely a bad idea. Putting tariffs is like shooting yourself in the foot.
Julio: Trump’s third idea to improve the economy is to reduce taxes on corporations.
Audio file, Donald Trump:
And a reduction in the Corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% solely for companies that make their products in America.
Sara: If you’re one of those very successful Latinos who earns more than $837,000 a year, well, it’s good for you, because you’re going to pay $60,000 less in taxes. If you’re one of the not-so-rich who earns less, you’re going to get a reduction in your taxes, maybe $70 in the short term. And that’s great, right? The problem is that these dollars will no longer reach the public treasury and then we will have less money for defense, less money for public health, less money for education, etc. You increase the national debt and in general terms, you weaken your institutions. So, when you see the long-term impacts, at the end of the day the average American household loses and ultimately you benefit the richest. While the rest are not affected directly, but indirectly.
Julio: Last August, during a press conference, Trump announced another of his great wishes in terms of economic policy.
Sara: He wants to lower the Federal Reserve interest rate by decree. The Federal Reserve in the United States is the Central Bank.
Audio file, Donald Trump:
I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people who would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.
Julio: That’s not in the power of a president, is it?
Sara: Absolutely.
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
The Fed is an independent entity. And as president, I would never interfere.
Julio: And yes, the Federal Reserve is technically an independent entity. So it’s not clear if Trump would actually have the power to control it. But in the hypothetical case that he could, according to some experts, this could affect the economy.
Sara: What happens? There is uncertainty. This is what happens when you want to control the Federal Reserve, uncertainty increases and it bounces back on you. All the interest rates are going to go through the roof, because nobody believes what they say anymore. And that’s the problem.
The whole economy works only on trust. They give you a dollar bill and out of trust you believe that it’s worth a dollar. Because it’s actually a piece of paper. So, the economy really works on trusting that this is going to be respected. When the Central Bank says we are lowering interest rates, it is important that we all believe that interest rates are going down, and when interest rates are going up, it is important that we believe that they are going up.
Julio: So, if the central bank becomes politicized, that trust could be lost. In Latin America we have examples of this trend, countries where this has already happened: Venezuela and Argentina. To mention a few, and in those countries, rampant inflation was unleashed.
Julio: But anyway. So, what do you think if now we talk about Kamala Harris’ proposals to improve the economy, what does she propose?
Sara: There are at least three proposals from Kamala that are very clear, although she also does not have exactly how they would work, but at least she has said and repeated them, right?
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
As president I will take on the high cost that matters most to most Americans. Like the cost of food. And I will work to pass the first ever federal ban on price gouging on food.
July: The first proposal of his campaign is a federal decree to prohibit speculation with prices, especially for food. Which went up a lot during the pandemic.
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
We all know that prices went up during the pandemic when the supply chains shut down and failed. But our supply chains have now improved and prices are still too high.
Sara: But eventually the production chains restart and some retailers, some sellers, continue charging a lot. So it is said: Hey, how is it possible? We are going to prohibit this abuse. The only problem is that it is very difficult to monitor the costs of companies. They have zero incentive to tell you what their costs are, right? How do we know how much Walmart costs Home Depot, Walgreens? We don’t know. So, are you charging more because it really costs you more, or are you charging more because you are abusing the consumer? The truth is that it is very difficult to know, right? It is very difficult.
Julio: Can there be any negative consequences of the government directly intervening in controlling the production distribution processes of a company and of certain products?
Sara: That is another problem. Yes, it is true that costs are very high and you artificially lower them. It is a huge problem. It could even create a black market, right? And if these alterations in the markets generate a lot of instability and losses in well-being. The product could very well have been sold, it could have been produced and it is not done because there is a limit on the price.
Julio: Well, what are Kamala Harris’s other proposals?
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
Let’s talk about the cost of housing.
Sara: One is her idea of housing construction.
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
We need to lower the cost of housing. The supply is too low.
Sara: The idea of housing construction comes because we have a frightening housing deficit.
Julio: There are not enough houses and that makes prices skyrocket.
Lady: Houses have risen too much. I mean everything, all the inflation.
Julio: This causes great concern among voters. In fact, 3 out of 4 Latinos say they are worried about the cost of housing.
Sara: But I’ll also tell you something, there is no housing shortage for billionaires. Builders have every incentive to continue serving this millionaire market that is willing to pay a lot for million-dollar homes. But the problem is that they have no incentive to build homes for ordinary people. These little houses with three bedrooms, one bathroom, or two. Those are the ones that have not been built and those are the ones that Kamala says she wants to promote.
Julio: Harris’ plan is basically focused on supply. She wants to build three million homes in four years, to address the shortage. In addition, she wants to give families who buy for the first time financial support: $25,000 for the down payment.
Sara: And that would also help a group that has been less privileged and that includes mostly Hispanics and African Americans. Few minorities are as attached to this desire to get ahead and fulfill the American dream and have your home, to have your future secured, as Hispanics. We have the goal set and I think that does affect the decisions we make a lot.
Julio: Not all economists seem convinced by Harris’ proposal. Some experts believe that the $25,000 check could trigger demand in the real estate sector. And that this could fuel the high prices that they are trying to combat.
Sara: And the other is her idea of supporting child care.
Audio file, Kamala Harris:
We know this works and has a direct impact on so many issues, including child poverty.
Sara: In other words, subsidizing the person to be able to leave a child in a daycare center, while the parents basically go to work. The simple fact of having someone to take care of your child while you work is a huge support.
Julio: And the thing is that this kind of service is usually very expensive. Almost prohibitive. In Nevada, for example, parents can pay almost a thousand dollars a month for daycare. In addition to this subsidy, Harris also wants to offer up to $6,000 to low-income families with newborn children.
On the other hand, she wants to raise taxes on millionaires and big companies. And although she hasn’t said so, it is assumed that this is how she will finance her economic plan.
Julio: Now, for a long time it was thought that what Latinos were most interested in was the immigration issue and that was a way to attract Latino voters. But now we have realized that Latinos, like the rest of the electorate, care most about the economy, at least in this election cycle. What does this tell you?
Sara: Yes, Latinos are definitely no longer very interested in immigration as it was once assumed. That doesn’t mean that we don’t care, but the economy is the most important thing.
or more importantly, it’s because the vast majority of Latinos are working class and anything that affects the economy affects us all.
Julio: Sara, thank you very much for talking with us today.
Sara: Likewise. Thank you very much Julio.
Julio: Next week on El Péndulo, we’re going to Florida to understand how the different Latino communities that live there vote.
Syra: Many Hispanics here in Florida vote with their homes, their countries of origin, in mind.
Julio: Thanks for listening!
Mariana: El Péndulo is a co-production of Radio Ambulante Studios and Noticias Telemundo.
Julio Vaqueiro of Noticias Telemundo is the host. This episode was reported and produced by Jess Alvarenga and me, Mariana Zúñiga.
Alana Casanova-Burgess is our executive producer. Editing is by Silvia Viñas, Eliezer Budasoff and Daniel Alarcón.
Desirée Yépez is our digital producer. Geraldo Cadava is an editorial consultant. Ronny Rojas did the fact checking. The music, mixing, and sound design are by Andrés Azpiri. The graphic design and art direction are by Diego Corzo.
At Noticias Telemundo, Gemma García is the executive vice president, and Marta Planells is the senior digital director. Adriana Rodriguez is a senior producer, and José Luis Osuna is in charge of the series’ video journalism.
At Radio Ambulante Studios, Natalia Ramírez is the product director, with support from Paola Aleán. Community management is by Juan David Naranjo Navarro. Camilo Jiménez Santofimio is the director of alliances and financing. Carolina Guerrero is executive producer of Central and CEO of Radio Ambulante Studios.
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I’m Mariana Zuñiga, and thank you for listening.